My Friends Assessment of 16 December Judgement

December 20, 2009

 

Dear Agha;

 

'The desire to gain an immediate selfish advantage always imperils their ultimate interests.  If they recognize this fact, they usually recognize it too late'.     Reinhold Niebuhr

 

 

Thanks for an informed piece.  I tend to agree with part of your assessment.  I sincerely hope that the script of the play currently on the judicial stage was not written by the analysis wing of Military Intelligence or ISI or army chief's planning secretariat.  If that is the case then it proves that GHQ has learned nothing and very soon will be knee deep in another mess.   

 

If plan is to completely overhaul the system then every one should be held accountable.  If screws are tightened only on President Zardari & MQM, then military operations directorate should start planning for the deployment of troops in the only peaceful province of the country.  Every one knows that you can not run Karachi & Hyderabad without MQM's consent.  If MQM jumps the ship, it means Karachi corps will be soon sucked into urban areas.  If the criminal gangs of Lyari can use rocket launchers at police mobiles, imagine what MQM hard core can achieve.  President Zardari after humiliation may decide to go back to his Manhattan apartment or buy a flat next to former President Mussharraf and GHQ may be looking only at this outcome.  However, revenge is a very virulent trait among tribal & feudal societies and even if half of the allegations of corruption against President Zardari are true, then he can surely spare few millions for his revenge.  He is no Bhutto to take crowds to ecstasy but dropping few millions in the pond of Sindhi mistrust can pay rich dividends.  In that case, even troops from Bahawalpur corps will be needed to control rural Sindh.  To prove this point see Exhibit A: rural Sindh in 1980s.  Before marching the troops out of barracks, someone needs to do the math.  With a $3.4 billion yearly defence budget (most of it goes to pay and pensions), you can not fight insurgencies in three out of four provinces and an urban anti-terrorism campaign in the remaining fourth.  If President Zardari resigns that will be best for him, Peoples Party and country in general (but then again why should he resign if the replacement in another dry cleaned politician).  May be if a respected retired judge is sent to President House for a while, it may bring some respect to the office. 

 

Overall a very bad situation. If the whole orchestra consists only of  judiciary and GHQ has nothing to do with this performance, the question is what GHQ can do?  If they restrain judiciary they will be accused of protecting corrupt politicians; if they keep their hands off everything and let events take their own course, the possible casualty will be Sindh (it is only a possibility and not a forgone conclusion).  I don't envy General Kiyani today but then again as one fine officer currently operating against militants once said, 'we are paying for the sins of our fathers'.  On a hopeful note, if current judicial activism while selective now may become responsible with time and brings back some confidence of general public in the system (if there was any left).  This will pay dividends in the long run.  It may help in restraining executive, military and bureaucracy and a normal balance between various organs of the state is achieved with time.  That will be the best outcome if short term side effects are tolerated by the patient.

 

Every one knows that President Zardari is no angel but then again what about the rest of the crowd?  Are they snow whites?  I know military men don't like him and he is not invited to any military function because uniformed Brahmins don't want to salute 'shudras'.  However, the question is that if Zardari was so unacceptable then they should have worked with Peoples Party before he became president.  Reminds one 1971.  Allowing free elections but when Shaikh Mujib ur Rahman won majority they wanted him to negotiate and give up many things.  If GHQ wants to work in the system no matter how flawed then they should think through and let the electoral process take care of nuisances.  A smart man would use even damaged goods to his advantage.  It is ironic that Peoples Party and Awami National party (labeled security threat by GHQ in the past) are fully supportive of military's fight against extremism.  The leadership of both parties have history of good relationship with Baluchs and GHQ could have used the narrow window of opportunity to de-escalate Baluchistan situation.  Immediately after Mussharraf's departure GHQ could have used these channels to convey to Baluchs that the policy was only Mussharraf's and as an institution they want to repair the damage.  It reminds me late Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan.  He was the only Pakistani which Indira Ghandhi genuinely respected (when Sanjay died, Bacha Khan went to India for condolence.  Indira was sitting with few senior government officials.  As soon as Bacha Khan entered the room, she ran towards him and dropped in his arms crying like a daughter in father's arms; and she had that kind of respect due to family relations).  Can you imagine how such relationships could be used to settle disputes.  You don't have to agree with everything everybody says but look at how each person's strength can be used for the benefit of the country.  That is the art of leadership.

 

I don't know the motives of all players but more conflict among political players is bad omen.  Adding more complexities to an already a very volatile situation is not good news.  If more cracks appear in the system, many groups may decide to leave the tent altogether.  This does not mean physical fragmentation but many areas will be out of federation de facto.  To prove this point see Exhibit B: Islamic Emirate of Waziristan (bad example) or Exhibit C: Iraqi Kurdistan (good example).  We will see whether adding another uneven leg (Chief Justice) to a shaky chair of decision making process (President, Prime Minister & Army Chief) adds stability or instability to the system.   I hope everyone will try for an outcome where every party is encouraged to stay in the tent pissing outside rather than leaving some outside the tent when it is inevitable that they will be pissing inside the tent.  Pakistanis should be very clear about the stakes.  It is no more boy scout game.  It is now big boys club.  In the past, 1965 gamble on Kashmir resulted in unexpected effect on East Bengal, the wager on 1990s Kashmir table was internal security of Pakistan and in 1980s all chips put on Afghanistan table by Pakistan were of Afghan origin. Net result of all these gambles; loss of East Pakistan, irreparable damage to internal cohesion in Pakistan and fragmentation of only buffer state known as Afghanistan.   Pakistani officers tried to redeem their honor lost in 1971 on the killing fields of East Pakistan/Bangladesh on the killing fields of Afghanistan.  Unknown to them they were erecting the remaining Pakistan on the altar of chaos and that is why the country is where it is.  Everything is logical and makes sense and that is how the wheels of history move; not some grand conspiracies hatched in dark board rooms in far off lands.  The tragic part is that most Pakistanis including some well informed people either don't have time or simply not interested in reading their own history.

 

'The keenest sorrow is to recognize ourselves as the sole cause of our adversities'.    Sophocles

 

 

From a well wisher of Pakistan

 

Warm Regards,

 

Hamid

 

 

--
Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death."  --
Albert Einstein !!!

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