Blog The Dumb Americans and Dr Afridi

The Dumb Americans and Dr Afridi

Posted by Author on in Blog 49

I have known Mr Ravi Rikhye since 2000.


When I was commanding 5 Independent Armoured Squadron in 1992  his book The War that Never was-Story of Indias Strategic Failures was distributed to all Pakistan Army officers.


I occasionally write for Ravi Rikhyes think tank www.orbat.com


Agha.H.Amin



THE CENTRAL TENET AS VIVIDLY AND GRAPHICALLY DESCRIBED BY A LEADING PAKISTANI IN 1950S

CLICK ON PICTURE TO READ THE COMPLETE STORY AND BACKGROUND

CLICK ON PICTURE TO READ THE COMPLETE STORY 

THE FOREIGN POLICY AS DESCRIBED IN 1950s

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 4, 2012

THE STORY OF INDIAS STRATEGIC FAILURES AND WHY INDIA NEVER WON A WAR AGAINST EQUALLY HOPELESS PAKISTAN

THE STORY OF INDIAS STRATEGIC

 FAILURES AND WHY

 INDIA NEVER WON A 

WAR AGAINST EQUALLY 

HOPELESS PAKISTAN


I THINK THIRD RATE 

PAKISTAN IS LUCKY TO 

HAVE A THIRD RATE ENEMY

 LIKE INDIA


AGHA H AMIN




















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Ravi Rikhye

ANALYSTS

  • A.H. Amin
  • Mandeep S.Bajwa
  • Tom Cooper
  • Hamid Hussain
  • Ravi Rikhye
  • Colin Robinson
  • Animesh Roul
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Articles in archives include:

- Iran Air Force vs US airpower
- US First wave Precision Strike Capability
-Military Briefing: Global Deployment of US and Allied Naval Forces 3.24.2006



Volume 10, Number 1

April 4, 2012

Comment on Indian Army promotion policies and senior officers

Hamid Hussain


          Vice Chief of Staff (VCOAS) Appointments: In some cases COAS designate is appointed as VCOAS while at other times another senior officer.  Some argue that senior most Lt. General and COAS designate should be appointed VCOAS so that COAS can work with him making a smooth transition when former takes over the reins of the army.  Others argue that VCOAS is a responsible position and officer with at least a year or two remaining in his service should be appointed regardless of the succession of COAS. Last few VCOAS appointments show that both paths have been taken.  Deepak Kapoor was appointed VCOAS before taking over as COAS but next four appointments; Lt. Generals ML Naidu (5 Rajput), Nobel Thamburaj, PC Bhardwaj and Shri Krishna Sinha (8 Gorkha Rifles) didn't consider COAS designate.  Various factors especially retirement age of 60 and seniority are main considerations. 


-          Promotion policy changes:  In India, army recommends about senior promotions & postings but MOD bureaucrats keep army on a very tight leash.  They do not allow senior officers to interact directly with politicians that causes a lot of heartburn among senior brass but has a beneficial effect of keeping army away from political intrigues.  The effects of such intrigues on police cadres has been nothing less than disastrous.   In case of India, the right of officer to challenge his rejection of promotion and even posting results in long legal battles.  Officer can send representation to army headquarters followed by statutory complaint to MOD and then ultimately to civilian courts.  On positive side the officer has avenues to address his grievances (in contrast to Pakistan where Chief's decision is final) but it has a negative fallout also as long drawn court battles, selective leaks about rival's confidential reports results in fissures within officer ranks, accusations and counter accusations creating a very unhealthy environment.  In my view, Army Tribunal should be the only avenue for such measures and to make it a level playing field a mix of serving & retired army officers and retired high court judges should be appointed its members. Fear of legal battles results in promotion strictly on seniority base disregarding all other factors.  


-          VK Singh Backgrounder: Singh is from a military family and like many proud Rajputs  several generations served with distinction.  He is a Rajput from rural Haryana.  His grandfather Mukhram Singh served in British Indian army as Viceroy Commissioned Officer (VCO).  His father Colonel Jagat Singh was from 14 Rajput Regiment. Several uncles and cousins served/serving in Indian army.  Now fourth generation of the family is serving in Indian army.  His son in law is also a Colonel.  He is an upright officer well respected for his professionalism and clean track record.  Good record at US Army War College at Carlisle and at Fort Benning.  Not a blemish during his long career (only one accusation that as Corps Commander in Ambala he ordered construction of an expensive club house for the golf course).  Unfortunately, in my opinion he should have talked directly and frankly with defense minister about his date of birth issue and once convinced that government will not change it, he should have left the issue alone but this is my two cent worth opinion.  This would have served the institution better and allowed him a free hand without any controversy to tackle corruption in the army that he is so concerned about.


-          Lieutenant General Bikram Singh Backgrounder: Sikh Light Infantry (I think 6 SLI) officer.  Good, professional officer but considered aggressive and very ambitious throughout his career.  Sometimes could be overbearing and intolerable due to his aggressiveness.  Such officers step on many toes during their careers.  Graduate of US Army War College at Carlisle.  Served as Deputy UN Force Commander in Congo.  His deputy in Congo was a Pakistani officer now head of Special Services Group (SSG).  Done good job in Congo but again his ambitions (trying to convey that he is a Force Commander material ) may have resulted in some rubbing.  No major red flags with the exception of two: First in Congo, probably his own battalion fathered some children.  No problem if it was consensual; big deal if it was rape.  I'm not aware of any negative outcome from any inquiry from this episode.  Second, a silly allegation that his daughter-in-law is Pakistani.  To my knowledge, she is a US citizen of mixed heritage; father an Afghan and mother from one of the Central Asianstans.  In this day and age of globalization, one can not ask relatives to give up their citizenships.  In my view this is quite absurd and not worth discussing.


-          Court Martial President of Sukhna Land Sam: In January 2011, the General Court Martial (GCM) consisting of five Lieutenant Generals and headed by Lieutenant General IP Singh convicted former 33rd Corps Commander Lt. General PK Rath  on three counts; issuing NOC, signing MOU with the builder and not informing higher authorities i.e. his Amy Commander.  Rath was cleared of the more grievous charge of intent to defraud the army.  In June 2011, Eastern Army Commander Lt. General Bikram Singh reconvened GCM to reconsider the acquittal on the last large charge.  To my knowledge, GCM maintained its previous decision.


-          Promotion System Changes: Promotion to senior ranks is a competitive process in every army.  Annual Confidential Report (ACR) is a crucial element and subjective comments by immediate superiors can have both negative and positive impact. Point system looking at all aspects of career is used to decrease the influence of subjective comments on officer's promotion.  In 2009, General Deepak Kapoor introduced two changes; first was bifurcation of senior officer (Brigadier and above) cadre into command & staff and staff only.  An officer above Brigadier rank would be promoted to one of the cadres.  This essentially created two classes resulting in much resentment as officer promoted for staff only cadre would never command a troop formation essentially taking him out of the race of crucial postings.  Second change was decreasing the impact of subjective assessments in ACR and increasing consideration of standard points in ACR.  VK Singh tried to reverse the policy and got into fight with MOD (latter's argument is that major changes can not be made every time a new chief take charge).  There is still some confusion as MOD has referred the matter to Law Ministry for their opinion (again due to fear of protracted court battles from affected officers) while on the other hand to my knowledge army has promoted all officers to both command & staff positions essentially discarding previous policy of two cadres. 


'We cannot afford to confine Army appointments to persons who have excited no hostile comment in their careers …. This is a time to try men of force and vision and not to be exclusively confined to those who are judged thoroughly safe by conventional standards'.  Prime Minister Winston Churchill to Sir John Dill, Chief of Imperial General Staff,  1940





0230 GMT May 19, 2012

Worlds leading military thinker Ravi Rikhye on Dr Afridi and USAs Masochism- www.orbat.com



    • Pakistan making no sense on doctor who helped pinpoint OBL We have an American reader who delights in sending us articles that demonstrate the complete irrationality of Pakistan's decision-making. Then the Editor is forced into defending Pakistan, along the lines of "it makes sense if you look at it from Pakistan's viewpoint". But every now and then Pakistan does something so astoundingly senseless even the Editor, who can find a rationale for anyone's actions, is left without an answer.


    • The case of the Pakistani doctor who helped pinpoint OBL is one such situation where the Editor, after spending the entire day trying to come up with a rational explanation for Pakistan's action has to retire defeated from the field.


    • Let us go back a little. Pakistan insisted that it had no idea where OBL was, but it knew for certain he was not in Pakistan. It further insisted it had nothing to do with OBL and Al Qaeda. It told the US with a straight face "if you say he is in Pakistan, tell us where and we'll arrest him." This, of course, would generate a lot of ROFLs on the part of the Americans, but that's beside the point here.


    • So you would think that when OBL was killed, the Pakistanis would go: "Oopsies!" and do their best to divert the conversation by saying "And are you enjoying the cucumber sandwiches from your garden?" Instead the Pakistanis made a truly sad, moronic effort to say they gave the US the lead to locate OBL. The contradictions of this position seemed not to bother the Pakistanis one bit. To wit, what does it say about you that the man is living in your country, but you are forced to resort to giving tips to the US so that the Americans can find him? Can there be any deeper expression of your complete patheticity and ineffectuality? Anyway, let us skip that.



    • Now let us back off for a minute. Treason is where someone causes his country grievous harm. It is a very serious offense, about the worst offense a citizen can commit against his country. Since Pakistan kept saying it had nothing to do with OBL, would not it have made sense to simply say nothing? By arresting the man and charging treason, you are saying the doctor severely harmed Pakistan's national interests. By saying he aided the Americans, you are saying that in the matter of OBL Pakistan's interest is fundamentally opposed to America's. And you are further saying that America is your enemy.


    • What precisely does Pakistan gain, after donkey's years of denying it had anything to do with OBL, by charging the man who flushed OBL from hiding with treason?  You have just shot down your own position, and confirmed to the world that you and AQ are BFFs. And for what? This is a real mystery to us, for all that we think we understand the Pakistanis.


    • Now, there is another angle to this doctor thing How exactly did the Pakistanis come to know about the doctor? It has to be from the Americans. And how come after the doctor delivered the blood samples, and OBL's presence was confirmed, the Americans did not tell him to skedaddle? Not only did the Americans blab all to the Pakistanis, they sacrificed their own man.


    • Now, of course, those who don't like the American government  will have a simple explanation. (When it comes to military/spy stuff, most everyone in the world does not like the American government; that is different from not liking America and Americans, who almost everyone likes.) The explanation is that the American government is a Class One duffer and blithering idiot.


    • We have a somewhat different take. It could be the doctor, poor fellow, is a red herring. It could be he did work for the Americans, and was sacrificed to throw the Pakistanis off the track.


    • We know some of our friends, particularly our British friends, are going to say: "Face facts, Ravi: the US government is a bunch of blithering idiots in these matters, and we're sick and tired of cleaning up the mess it makes." But the truth is, the Brits – and the Russians and Chinese and French and anyone you can think of – make their fair share of messes, so no sense in getting holier than thou in these matters.


    • Advice for the young spy From time to time Editor, in his self-appointed role of Wise Old Spy, likes to give advice to the aspiring youngster who has set his heart firmly on spydom. Today Editor will give the same advice he gave many times during his 20-years in India. Which is: you have to be stark raving bonkers to work for the Americans. It is not they are incompetent. They are no more or no less incompetent than anyone else. It is they are absolutely ruthless: they will sacrifice you at the drop of a hat.


    • At which point out Brit friends and not a few Russians will interrupt: "Be serious, Ravi. No one can out-ruth us."


  • But actually the Americans are more ruthless because they are experts at making you believe you are their best friend forever and that you matter more to them than anything. They play off their reputation for straight-shooting and honesty that is longer than the day. No one with an IQ above 5 ever trusts a Brit or a Russian covert operative. So anyone who works for them and is sacrificed to expediency has only themselves to blame.  The Americans are so good it is very easy to believe they care for you.
  •  
  • By all means work for the Americans if that's what you absolutely must do. Just don't latter come complaining to Old Grandpa Ravi.



- 


0230 GMT May 22, 2012


·         US stands up to Pakistan  President Obama has refused to meet with the Pakistan president until the later reopens the land supply route to Afghanistam. Consider Pakistan is at the Afghanistan conference in Chicago at the US's invitation, this is remarkable. For ten years the US has gone around with a large "Kick me, I'm a moron who will never fight back" sign on its butt, and the Pakistanis have happily, and repeatedly obliged. What's more, they have billed, and been paid, large sums of money by a US grateful it is being kicked.

·         The sum of money is $20-billion, and hey, if US Government paid Editor a mere $50,000/year to abuse said US Government, Editor would consider it his patriotic duty to oblige. Readers might say: "Wait a minute, given your financial situation we're sure $5,000/year suffices."  Well, a person has to maintain standards, you know. Editor wouldn't want USG to think he is a cheap kicker.

·         Now just to be clear. Suppose Pakistan did not support the Taliban. That does not mean the US would have won this war in no time. The Afghans would still have resisted US occupation. The Afghans would have used opium to buy weapons in Pakistan.  There still would have been an Afghan war. But absent Pakistan, US could have done as much as it has done at a tenth the cost.

·         What's morbidly fascinating about the Afghan War is that for the first time in US history, America has allied with its enemy, and paid the ally to kill American soldiers. The US justification has been that allying with the Pakistanis is better than fighting them.

·         Hmmmm. So what the US is saying is that it's okay to pay Pakistan kill Americans, as long as Pakistan permits passage of supplies to maintain Americans in Afghanistan – the same ones Pakistan is directly killing.

·         Does this make any sense? No, and the US Government gets away with it because America has become a Sense Free Zone. It has also become an Accountability Free Zone. As long as it has to do with national security, US Government can commit any atrocity on its own soldiers, and charge taxpayers any amount of money, and the good people of the US could care less. The good people comprise 99% of America, and have just one demand: don't ask us to shed our blood, and don't raise our taxes to pay for your wars.

·         Anyway. The Editor can't help ranting on this subject. Our point today is different. The point is that Pakistan seems to have outlived its welcome in Washington. The tipping point was not even finding Bin Laden in a house whose plot adjoins a Pakistan military facility. The tipping point was Pakistan's cutting off land access and then attempting to blackmail Washington.

·         This appears to have been the last straw for the craven sub-IQ people who constitute our national security leadership.

·         Our sole concern is that the national security part of the US Government is not just dysfunctional, its masochistic. Now that  Pakistan has been told by America it doesn't have America to kick around any more, Editor is worried for his adopted country. Where is the US Government going to get its daily dose of abuse? After all, we're addicted to being kicked in the butt. Readers, please send in your ideas for how our government can make sure its humiliation continues.



0230 GMT May 25, 2012

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