PAKISTANS POLITICAL FUTURE-Agha H Amin

PAKISTANS POLITICAL FUTURE

Agha H Amin

RAS SAHIBS OBSERVATIONS AND QUESTIONS
:--

AA,

Interesting ideas but what about some concrete solutions?

Instead of going ballistic on Tahir, try and suggest a way

out of this mess. Just because people like me have given

up does not mean that all of Pakistan should.

The time for understanding has elapsed. These barbarians

are already inside the gates...

RE: #33: The last time I heard her speak to the PPP California chapter, Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto

talked about
her fears for Pakistan including what she called the
birth of the "Emirate of Waziristan". She went back
and we all found out that hope alone is not a good strategy.
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AND AGHA AMINS ANSWERS:----

as hinted here the concrete solution is social justice and end of corruption of politicians and

military.a vain hope.if that does not happen countless military operations will fail.already the

waziristan operation has failed.

now who will do it ? not the politicians ? a violent coup by a minority political or military ( not the

generals) would be the solution.

meanwhile things are moving too fast and with complex factors pakistans balkanisation if the present

political and military culture continues is not far off.

pakistans political system has failed.its army has failed.the solution is radical reform.if that is done

there is a hope ,but who will do it is a big question.

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the situation has parallels to the later mughals:--

failure in dealing with sikh and maratha insurgents (failure in FATA and Balochistan)

foreign invasion of nadir shah(possible invasion by India).

pashtun re-assertion under Ahmad Shah 1748-1773

arrival of east india compapany (USA and Private Contractors)

extreme corruption of mughal nobility and factions, turani and irani parties (shi sunni strife)

result:--

1-balkanisation of mughal empire

followed by

2-its reunification and conquest by English East India Company

New Factors:--

1-Islamic Extremism of an international type
2-Nuclear weapons
3-Institutionalised political and military corruption

Broadly speaking FIVE scenarios:--

1-A MILITARY TAKE OVER IN AN EFFORT TO CLEAN THE MESS BY MARTIAL

LAW.POSSIBILITY 60 % IN NEXT FIVE YEARS.IF THIS FAILS IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY

AN EXTERNAL WAR AND DENUCLEARISATION AND BALKANISATION

2-CONTINUED POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND MANIPULATION OF POLITICIANS BY THE

MILITARY AGENCIES.POSSIBILITY 75 % IN NEXT FIVE YEARS

3-MAJOR BREAKDOWN BECAUSE OF INSURGENCY AND EXTERNAL WAR AND

DENUCLEARISATION AND BALKANISTAION.POSSIBILITY 60 % IN NEXT TEN YEARS.

4-VIOLENT MILITARY COUP BY LOWER RANK OFFICERS THAN THE TOP -POSSIBILITY

25 % BUT WILL GROW AS CIVIL WAR AND UNREST CONTINUES.IF IT SUCCEEDS IT

WOULD BE PAKISTANS SALVATION.

5-ELECTION OF A POLITICAL LEADER WHO IS BRILLIANT AND HAS THE RESOLVE TO

CARRY OUT REFORM AND SUCCEED--PROBABILITY 25 % UNLESS THE POLITICAL

LEADER HAS SUPPORT OF THE RIGHT PEOPLE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL

AGHA AMIN

--
Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death."  --
Albert Einstein !!!