Russian Military Role in Post Russian Afghanistan
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The Russians already firmly boots on ground are established at Kulyab ,Kurgan Teppe and Dushanbe with air regiments both fixed wing and fixed wing including long range bombers etc as well as two infantry divisions.
In any post US Afghan war they will effectively use air power to provide close and strategic air support to the Northern Alliance.They will acquire greater ranges by forward move to Dehdadi and Kunduz as well as Shindand Airbases and possibly also use Bagram and Kabul Air Bases.
One key lesson of present Afghan war has been supremacy of air power.
All will go well unless the Taliban acquire advanced SAMS like Stingers which only a state actor can supply them.
Ironically only the Russians in lead with Iranians and Indians will prove to be saviours of all moderate Pashtuns,progressive Pashtuns,all non Pashtuns,Shias and Ismails of Afghanistan against savage stone age mentality Taliban.
Agha.H.Amin
CLICK ON MAP TO SEE THE COMPLETE MAP
In any post US Afghan war they will effectively use air power to provide close and strategic air support to the Northern Alliance.They will acquire greater ranges by forward move to Dehdadi and Kunduz as well as Shindand Airbases and possibly also use Bagram and Kabul Air Bases.
One key lesson of present Afghan war has been supremacy of air power.
All will go well unless the Taliban acquire advanced SAMS like Stingers which only a state actor can supply them.
Ironically only the Russians in lead with Iranians and Indians will prove to be saviours of all moderate Pashtuns,progressive Pashtuns,all non Pashtuns,Shias and Ismails of Afghanistan against savage stone age mentality Taliban.
Agha.H.Amin
CLICK ON MAP TO SEE THE COMPLETE MAP
http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2009/07/new-us-strategy-in-afghanistan-and-camp.html
On the Oxus River at the Tajikistan Afghanistan Border at Bandar Sherkhan with Jagran Zakir a Pashtun from Tagab who was trained at Riga Police Academy,USSR for five years and is also a class ALPHA interpreter in Russian language.His uncle was Afghan Ambassador to USSR in 1980s during the leftist regime.
At the Bearing Point Guest House in Kabul with Ex USSR Diplomat and Afghan specialist Begjan and American friend Greg Polk ,2004 September.Photo taken by Oliver Dziggel Bearing Point,Now Deloite Consulting.Begjan also served in the Field Artillery of the Red Army and was Kazakhastan First Secretary in Kabul Embassy in 2005-6.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE USA WITHDRAWS FROM AFGHANISTAN
A HYPOTHETICAL STUDY
By
Major Agha H Amin (Retired)
06 November 2010
POSSIBILITY ALPHA
1. The US/NATO/CIS/International Community retain a buffer peace keeping zone in Kabul Torkham Corridor.
2. This would act as a damper for Taliban and enable US/NATO/International forces to act as a strategic fire brigade in case of any major upset in Afghanistan.
3. A Russian/CIS force acts as peace keeping force in North Afghanistan in cooperation with Northern Alliance which enjoys support of majority of North Afghanistan population.
4. An Iranian peace keeping force in west Afghanistan.
5. A most balanced and rational solution
6.The only weak link is will the Taliban respect the arrangement ? No because they only fear Allah and have some respect for the B 52 !
POSIBILITY BRAVO
1. US Withdrawal while retaining the Kabul Torkham Corridor and a free for all international intervention.
2. The US/NATO lets the events take their own course with no formal agreement with regional parties.
3. India escalates against Pakistan to reduce pressure on Northern Alliance.
POSSIBILITY CHARLIE
1. THE US/NATO WITHDRAW TOTALLY NOT RETAINING ANY PRESENCE WHILE RUSSIA/CIS/IRAN/INDIA INTERVENE.
2. TALIBAN WILL OCCUPY GREATER PART OF AFGHANISTAN THAN POSSIBILITY ALPHA OR CHARLIE BUT CIVIL WAR CONTINUES.
3. INDIA ESCALATES AGAINST PAKISTAN TO SUPPORT NORTHERN ALLIANCE .
POSSIBILITY DELTA
1. THE US/NATO TOTALLY WITHDRAWS WHILE ONLY RUSSIA/CIS/INDIA INTERVENE.
2. TALIBAN OCCUPY GREATER AREA THAN POSSIBILITY ALPHA BRAVO AND CHARLIE BUT THE CIVIL WAR CONTINUES.
3. INDIA PAKISTAN CONFLICT WILL ESCALATE AS AN INDIAN RESPONSE TO REDRESS THE BALANCE IN AFGHANISTAN BY ESCALATING AGAINST PAKISTAN.
4. A CONVENTIONAL INDO PAK WAR STARTS INVOLVING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
Major Agha H Amin (Retired)
24/10/10
This brief paper is a hypothetical visualization of various strategic,operational and tactical possibilities in the Af Pak Region .
Broad Strategic Scenario
A MORE DETAILED DIVISION OF TALIBAN AND US POSSIBLE STRATEGY
US Strategy appears to be neutralization and annihilation of the more radical Haqqani Company for strategic operational and face saving and a possible compromise with the less radical Mulla Omar and Hikmatyar Companies.
Another major objective is to drive a wedge in between Pakistani state and Haqqani and Company by focing Pakistan to take military action against Haqqani.
General Hameed Gul in various interviews recently has presented a twin power failure theory spread over 2 to five years :---
1. Failure and withdrawal of US from Afghanistan.
2. Islamists concentrate on Kashmir together with Chinese assistance and Indian withdrawal from Kashmir.
3. Maoists start a grand offensive with Chinese and Pakistani support and India is weakened and destabilized.
4. Islamists expand into Central Asia and Middle East.
5. General Gul also warned Islamists against any confrontation with China.
6. On the other hand US covert policy seems to be to provoke a major Islamist Insurrection in China which Gul says should be avoided at all costs.
US Options
1. Withdraw from Afghanistan without any major strategic denuclearizing of Pakistan and avoid a nuclear conflict which is likely if an attempt is made to denuclearize Pakistan with Indian assistance.Will straight lead to realization of Hameed Gul Theory.
2. There is a possibility that US unilateral withdrawal can lead to another war of interventions in Afghanistan with Russia and Iran in the lead:--
3. Retain partial presence in Afghanistan and partition it .A least risk and pragmatic approach strategically balanced and entirely feasible.
4. Launch an attack in Iran and expand the war . May be beyond US potential if not materially then at least in terms of resolution.A US state department official Doug Scherer termed US leadership as irresolute in case of Iran.
5. Denuclearise Pakistan , Balkanise the region , keep a permanent force in Af Pak .A dangerous possibility which can lead to a major conflict possibly nuclear with China stepping in.
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