Pakistani Militarys Non State Islamist Proxies Policy-By-Agha H Amin

Posted by Author on January 2, 2010 in Blog 08 49

Pakistani Militarys Non State Islamist Proxies Policy

After 9/11 the Pakistani military and Pakistani policy run by by the Pakistani military faced a really tough test.

Pakistan led by General Musharraf its military ruler who was mix of a liberal and a commando steered what outwardly seemed a U turn.

As one analyses the move was more complicated.An Indian military analyst in his book states that Musharraf snatched victory out of jaws of defeat.

While the policy of Musharraf after 9/11 was a dual policy to keep the military proxies of Pakistan , the Taliban , a variety of groups centering on both sides of Pakistan Afghanistan border provinces inside the PakistaniÃ‚Â military system and also get tremendous leverage in terms of being a US ally and get valuable monetary and military aid from USA.Keeping one feet each in two boats seriously tested the equilibrium of Pakistani military system of proxy wars.It brought serious cracks in the system notably the Mehsud led civil war against the Pakistani military from 2003 till todate.

Three factors were at play.One was US pressure on Musharraf to act against the tribal region FATA tribes sheltering the Afghan Taliban and other groups like Al Qaeda,Sipaha i Sahaba,Lashkra i Jhangvi,Hikmatyars Hizb e Islami,Haqqanis group etc.Notable was US raid on a Madrassa in Waziristan in 2002 which was a primer in this civil war.The raid set the Mehsuds and Wazirs against the Pakistani military.If not as a whole , then at least a large part.The incident finally led to an assasination attempt on Musharraf originating from the tribal areas of Waziristan.Such was the internal division that at the same time another assasination attempt against Musharraf was planned by Musharrafs own Pakistan Army commandos and some airforce lower ranks.In playing the game of Dr Jekyl and Mr Hyde

Musharraf started appearing more of a villain to many in Pakistan and Afghanistan.My research reveals that Musharraf attempted a difficult balancing act and to some extent succeeded in pleasing both sides but ultimately lost balance and the bluff was called.Ironically by both the USA and Pakistans military proxies the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Socially and temperamentally the Wazirs and Mehsuds are fiercely independent and extremely difficult to manipulate.The Pakistani military in the name of Islam and monetary rewards succeeded in manipulating them from 1947 to 2002.In 2002 this manipulation ended.

Another complicating factor in the drama was the fact that the Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban were linked to the FATA tribals by intermarriages.The Al Qaeda also provided significant military and monetary aid to the FATA tribals with large donations by wealthy Arabs.
Nevertheless the US Commando strikes and later drone attacks provoked the tribals and forced the Pakistan Army into operations against them.The unnecessary killings of tribals by US drones and by Lieutenant General Safdar in 2004-6 led the Mehsuds ,Wazirs,Mohmands and Safis into turning against the Pakistani military.The Bhittanis remained weak as always and the Afridis brilliantly executed the balancing act keeping both the Pakistani military and Talibans happy.

Significantly the majority of the Taliban/Islamist groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan, a direct result of Musharrafs covert support to them remained within the Pakistani non state military proxies system.These included Mulla Omar,Haqqani,Hikmatyar,Kunnar Bajaur Wahhabis etc.

Three truces that Pakistani military negotiated with Taliban were broken by Pakistani military under US Pressure.To some extent US policy succeeded in making the Pakistani balancing act being counter checked.At least in Waziristan Bajaur and Mohmand.In a large part it failed as majority of Taliban/Islamist groups stayed within Pakistani military proxy non state system like Mulla

Omar,Hikmatyar,Haqqani and the Kunnar Bajaur Wahhabis.

The assasination of 8 US CIA officials in Khost by a Haqqani group suicide bomber in Khost is a landmark.The Haqqani Group is based in

North Waziristan.In large parts of Afghanistans south US policy is a failure.It has failed in driving a wedge in between Pakistani military and its non state Islamist proxies called good Taliban.The Haqqani groups ZadranÃ‚Â tribe it may be noted has a strong presence in North Waziristan and Khost Province of Afghanistan.

Notable is the Pashtun tradition of Badal.Revenge has a central place in Pashun psyche.Too many killings by USA ,a large part unnecessary have stoked the heat of flames of Pashtun desire for revenge.

While travelling in Khost Afghanistan a few kilometres from North Waziristan I asked my tribal host,a Zadran from North Waziristan, How bad was Musharraf ? To my astonisgment he replied , Sir in his time bombs rarely hit us,I mean the Pakistani bombs.This was by design he continued.Now he said , most bombs hit us ! This is stregthening oue r resolve thus so many attacks in Punjab and the Mosque attack in Pindi he said.He said while Pashtuns have a large heartÃ‚Â they want to be treated equally.You can obtain our trust by fairplay and fortrightness as Jinnah and all Pakistani governments did till 2001.But sir not by killing us.

Jokingly he concluded , a woman cannot have two husbands ! He concluded that dual policies can be dangerous.At some stage he said the Pakistani state has to decide.Select either Islam or US Dollars ! Such wisdom one may not find at RAND or FPRI !